FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

377.03 – 162.77

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

416 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 648.6 ±9.3

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 133.63Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 95Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 148.4Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.3 ±10.4

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 24.22Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 81.09Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 57.46Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11178, 4206, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

377 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11178, 4206, 2583

Auto

83.8 22%

Teleop

229.5 61%

Endgame

63.8 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5411, 7616, 10385

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5411, 7616, 10385

Auto

49.7 30%

Teleop

100.4 60%

Endgame

16.7 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.82 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score377pts

Blue projected score162.8pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 214.3
Score range: 116–424
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 558 vs event baseline 258.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

648.6Season APEX265.3

83.8Auto49.7

229.5Teleop100.4

63.8Endgame16.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	31
teleop	215	50
endgame	93	61
foul	5	0
total	416	142

Result

Final score

416 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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