FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.74 – 154.71

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.5 ±9.8

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX -17.97Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 9.76Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 123.95Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.5 ±9.8

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX -13.73Rank 35Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 96.34Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 72.1Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8769, 11169, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8769, 11169, 8749

Auto

41.2 37%

Teleop

66.2 60%

Endgame

3.8 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8177, 5427, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8177, 5427, 9140

Auto

45.6 31%

Teleop

79.8 53%

Endgame

23.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score115.7pts

Blue projected score154.7pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39
Score range: 69–202
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 263.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.5Season APEX436.5

41.2Auto45.6

66.2Teleop79.8

3.8Endgame23.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	18
teleop	54	112
endgame	12	83
foul	45	0
total	134	213

Result

Final score

134 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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