FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.48 – 238.65

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

262 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 104.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.9 ±9.8

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 108.31Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 27.18Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 6.99Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.7 ±10.4

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 79.86Rank 45Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 24.49Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 134.3Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3035, 4192, 3310

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3035, 4192, 3310

Auto

21.7 15%

Teleop

89.0 60%

Endgame

38.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4153, 10518, 4063

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4153, 10518, 4063

Auto

47.3 20%

Teleop

103.1 44%

Endgame

86.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score142.5pts

Blue projected score238.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.2
Score range: 94–287
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 267.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.9Season APEX238.7

21.7Auto47.3

89Teleop103.1

38.2Endgame86.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	26
teleop	175	61
endgame	58	63
foul	0	0
total	262	150

Result

Final score

262 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 104.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.