FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

205.08 – 236.12

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

433 – 246

Prediction missed · off by 118.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.7 ±9.4

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 14.57Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 154.2Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 36.31Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.2 ±9.8

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 154.2Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 61.93Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 19.99Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2158, 6369, 3561

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2158, 6369, 3561

Auto

57.7 29%

Teleop

88.8 45%

Endgame

49.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2689, 148, 10913

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2689, 148, 10913

Auto

70.9 30%

Teleop

123.5 53%

Endgame

38.8 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score205.1pts

Blue projected score236.1pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31
Score range: 158–283
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 679 vs event baseline 262.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.7Season APEX438.2

57.7Auto70.9

88.8Teleop123.5

49.3Endgame38.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	58
teleop	255	103
endgame	81	85
foul	15	0
total	433	246

Result

Final score

433 – 246

Prediction missed · off by 118.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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