FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.02 – 143.92

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

319 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 63 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.2 ±9.3

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 69.86Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 154.86Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 88.3Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.7 ±10.4

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 35.2Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 51.42Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 57.3Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7312, 127, 5414

/ 100 compat

Projected

313 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7312, 127, 5414

Auto

71.7 23%

Teleop

158.9 52%

Endgame

77.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6357, 9506, 8114

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6357, 9506, 8114

Auto

36.4 28%

Teleop

87.3 66%

Endgame

8.3 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score313pts

Blue projected score143.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.1
Score range: 97–360
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 583 vs event baseline 260.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.2Season APEX256.7

71.7Auto36.4

158.9Teleop87.3

77.7Endgame8.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	40
teleop	182	145
endgame	91	79
foul	0	0
total	319	264

Result

Final score

319 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 63 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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