FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.42 – 187.77

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 375

Prediction missed · off by 175.3 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.3 ±10.4

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 59.14Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 61.71Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 68.57Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 704.2 ±8.7

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 82.05Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 56.05Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 49.67Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10518, 11169, 3310

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10518, 11169, 3310

Auto

48.6 26%

Teleop

94.9 50%

Endgame

44.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8749, 5572, 4206

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8749, 5572, 4206

Auto

33.8 18%

Teleop

134.9 74%

Endgame

14.6 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score189.4pts

Blue projected score187.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.6
Score range: 143–234
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 252.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.3Season APEX704.2

48.6Auto33.8

94.9Teleop134.9

44.6Endgame14.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	59
teleop	10	256
endgame	0	60
foul	0	0
total	26	375

Result

Final score

26 – 375

Prediction missed · off by 175.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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