FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

354.51 – 115.2

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

440 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.5 ±9.8

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 116.31Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 122.6Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 115.6Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.8 ±10.4

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 10.05Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 4.03Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 101.12Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4063, 457, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.5 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4063, 457, 2583

Auto

73.8 21%

Teleop

201.8 57%

Endgame

79.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5503, 8818, 2158

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5503, 8818, 2158

Auto

19.6 18%

Teleop

57.4 52%

Endgame

33.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.85 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score354.5pts

Blue projected score115.2pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 239.3
Score range: 58–412
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 314.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.5Season APEX182.8

73.8Auto19.6

201.8Teleop57.4

79.8Endgame33.4

91Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	20
teleop	241	9
endgame	97	32
foul	0	0
total	440	61

Result

Final score

440 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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