FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

665.42 – 420.2

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

757 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 895.1 ±8.1

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 86.29Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 290.1Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 289.03Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 673.5 ±8.7

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 155.94Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 82.95Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 181.31Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9140, 9128, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

665.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9140, 9128, 6369

Auto

133.8 20%

Teleop

370.0 56%

Endgame

152.5 23%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2848, 5414, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2848, 5414, 8749

Auto

74.0 18%

Teleop

225.0 55%

Endgame

111.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.83 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score665.4pts

Blue projected score420.2pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 245.2
Score range: 364–721
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1167 vs event baseline 312.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

895.1Season APEX673.5

133.8Auto74

370Teleop225

152.5Endgame111.2

47Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	189	106
teleop	375	190
endgame	193	114
foul	0	0
total	757	410

Result

Final score

757 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 pts

Match videos

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