FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

338.23 – 433.75

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 161 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.9 ±9.3

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 146.21Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 173.65Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 18.37Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 739.6 ±8.7

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 61.76Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 221.58Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 150.41Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3005, 2468, 2687

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3005, 2468, 2687

Auto

58.2 17%

Teleop

189.5 57%

Endgame

86.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 624, 10340, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 624, 10340, 3847

Auto

77.2 18%

Teleop

263.9 62%

Endgame

84.9 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score338.2pts

Blue projected score433.8pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.5
Score range: 288–484
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 277.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.9Season APEX739.6

58.2Auto77.2

189.5Teleop263.9

86.5Endgame84.9

119Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	91
teleop	6	223
endgame	55	34
foul	0	0
total	102	348

Result

Final score

102 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 161 pts

Match videos

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