FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

388.08 – 340.67

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

271 – 348

Prediction missed · off by 62.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.8 ±10.4

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 124.39Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 133.19Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 130.5Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 589.9 ±9.3

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 77.73Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 151.22Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 111.72Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6377, 2728, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6377, 2728, 9418

Auto

78.2 20%

Teleop

210.0 55%

Endgame

95.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5892, 1296, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5892, 1296, 10014

Auto

64.8 19%

Teleop

195.1 57%

Endgame

79.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score388.1pts

Blue projected score340.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.4
Score range: 291–438
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 619 vs event baseline 277.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.8Season APEX589.9

78.2Auto64.8

210Teleop195.1

95.2Endgame79.7

89Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	78
teleop	102	185
endgame	81	85
foul	15	0
total	271	348

Result

Final score

271 – 348

Prediction missed · off by 62.2 pts

Match videos

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