FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

487.77 – 341.77

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

430 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 676.8 ±8.4

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 66.06Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 225.67Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 196.04Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.9 ±9.3

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 148.56Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 174.17Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 19.04Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8088, 6800, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

487.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8088, 6800, 118

Auto

102.3 21%

Teleop

254.8 53%

Endgame

125.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 3005, 2468, 2687

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3005, 2468, 2687

Auto

54.3 16%

Teleop

199.0 58%

Endgame

88.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score487.8pts

Blue projected score341.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146
Score range: 292–538
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 749 vs event baseline 276.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

676.8Season APEX610.9

102.3Auto54.3

254.8Teleop199

125.7Endgame88.7

84Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	76
teleop	216	142
endgame	162	76
foul	0	25
total	430	319

Result

Final score

430 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 pts

Match videos

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