FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

313.74 – 372.62

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

351 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 90.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±9.8

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 86.41Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 117.51Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 109.82Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.5 ±9.8

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 51.74Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 152.39Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 168.49Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3481, 324, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3481, 324, 5829

Auto

49.1 16%

Teleop

171.1 56%

Endgame

87.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5417, 2881, 6672

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5417, 2881, 6672

Auto

56.2 15%

Teleop

222.8 61%

Endgame

85.0 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score313.7pts

Blue projected score372.6pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.9
Score range: 264–423
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 275.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.3Season APEX436.5

49.1Auto56.2

171.1Teleop222.8

87.3Endgame85

38Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	95
teleop	203	129
endgame	103	4
foul	0	0
total	351	228

Result

Final score

351 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 90.9 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.