FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

346.06 – 339.17

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

314 – 335

Prediction missed · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 576.4 ±9.3

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 128.37Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 132.51Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 85.18Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 589.9 ±9.3

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 112.24Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 149.26Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 77.67Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1477, 2582, 7506

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1477, 2582, 7506

Auto

45.3 13%

Teleop

209.1 61%

Endgame

91.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10014, 1296, 5892

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10014, 1296, 5892

Auto

63.9 19%

Teleop

187.3 55%

Endgame

86.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score346.1pts

Blue projected score339.2pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.9
Score range: 289–396
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 275.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

576.4Season APEX589.9

45.3Auto63.9

209.1Teleop187.3

91.2Endgame86.9

102Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	63
teleop	170	219
endgame	120	53
foul	0	0
total	314	335

Result

Final score

314 – 335

Prediction missed · off by 18.1 pts

Match videos

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