FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

466.92 – 401.02

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

333 – 337

Prediction missed · off by 99 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 739.6 ±8.7

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 72.79Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 232.43Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 161.7Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.8 ±10.4

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 127.46Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 138.12Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 135.44Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 624, 10340, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

466.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 624, 10340, 3847

Auto

76.6 17%

Teleop

288.2 63%

Endgame

92.1 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6377, 2728, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

401 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6377, 2728, 9418

Auto

76.6 19%

Teleop

226.4 56%

Endgame

100.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score466.9pts

Blue projected score401pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.9
Score range: 352–516
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 670 vs event baseline 274.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

739.6Season APEX363.8

76.6Auto76.6

288.2Teleop226.4

92.1Endgame100.3

70Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	115	81
teleop	168	145
endgame	50	81
foul	0	30
total	333	337

Result

Final score

333 – 337

Prediction missed · off by 99 pts

Match videos

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