FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

372.74 – 312.91

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

300 – 429

Prediction missed · off by 94.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.6 ±9.8

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 40.76Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 158.36Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 173.62Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.9 ±9.3

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 139.92Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 9.51Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 163.48Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10032, 2881, 6672

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10032, 2881, 6672

Auto

69.4 19%

Teleop

223.3 60%

Endgame

76.6 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3005, 2687, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3005, 2687, 2468

Auto

46.1 15%

Teleop

186.0 59%

Endgame

81.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score372.7pts

Blue projected score312.9pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.8
Score range: 264–422
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 729 vs event baseline 273.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.6Season APEX610.9

69.4Auto46.1

223.3Teleop186

76.6Endgame81.2

55Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	81
teleop	194	231
endgame	74	117
foul	0	0
total	300	429

Result

Final score

300 – 429

Prediction missed · off by 94.4 pts

Match videos

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