FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

466.54 – 314.43

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

547 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 676.8 ±8.4

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 59.95Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 219.83Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 186.76Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±9.8

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 87.76Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 117.63Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 109.04Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8088, 6800, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

466.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8088, 6800, 118

Auto

101.5 22%

Teleop

235.7 51%

Endgame

123.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 3481, 324, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3481, 324, 5829

Auto

49.8 16%

Teleop

187.6 61%

Endgame

69.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score466.5pts

Blue projected score314.4pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 152.1
Score range: 265–516
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 839 vs event baseline 271.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

676.8Season APEX426.3

101.5Auto49.8

235.7Teleop187.6

123.2Endgame69.2

111Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	50
teleop	310	94
endgame	134	148
foul	0	0
total	547	292

Result

Final score

547 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 pts

Match videos

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