FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

325.63 – 430.93

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

277 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 589.9 ±9.3

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 74.12Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 144.64Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 106.87Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 739.6 ±8.7

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 59.76Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 221.18Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 149.99Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5892, 1296, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5892, 1296, 10014

Auto

63.9 20%

Teleop

188.0 58%

Endgame

72.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 624, 10340, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 624, 10340, 3847

Auto

78.4 18%

Teleop

257.9 61%

Endgame

88.1 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score325.6pts

Blue projected score430.9pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -105.3
Score range: 276–481
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 728 vs event baseline 279.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

589.9Season APEX739.6

63.9Auto78.4

188Teleop257.9

72.3Endgame88.1

84Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	92
teleop	118	255
endgame	82	104
foul	25	0
total	277	451

Result

Final score

277 – 451

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts