FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

327.52 – 421.32

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

213 – 488

Prediction correct · off by 90.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±9.8

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 92.8Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 119.75Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 114.97Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 739.6 ±8.7

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 57.06Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 217.68Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 146.58Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3481, 324, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3481, 324, 5829

Auto

53.9 17%

Teleop

177.3 55%

Endgame

91.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 624, 10340, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 624, 10340, 3847

Auto

78.8 19%

Teleop

258.1 62%

Endgame

77.7 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score327.5pts

Blue projected score421.3pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.8
Score range: 278–471
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 701 vs event baseline 278.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.3Season APEX739.6

53.9Auto78.8

177.3Teleop258.1

91.9Endgame77.7

56Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	75
teleop	106	251
endgame	62	157
foul	0	5
total	213	488

Result

Final score

213 – 488

Prediction correct · off by 90.6 pts

Match videos

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