FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

499.03 – 343.49

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

446 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 94.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 716.5 ±8.4

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 82.68Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 223.95Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 192.4Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 589.9 ±9.3

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 79.55Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 150.88Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 113.06Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2587, 6800, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

499 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2587, 6800, 118

Auto

86.6 18%

Teleop

267.8 54%

Endgame

139.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 5892, 1296, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5892, 1296, 10014

Auto

66.5 19%

Teleop

195.2 57%

Endgame

80.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score499pts

Blue projected score343.5pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 155.5
Score range: 293–549
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 653 vs event baseline 277.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

716.5Season APEX589.9

86.6Auto66.5

267.8Teleop195.2

139.2Endgame80.8

118Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	47
teleop	219	136
endgame	122	19
foul	15	5
total	446	207

Result

Final score

446 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 94.8 pts

Match videos

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