FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

367.72 – 323.9

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

312 – 337

Prediction missed · off by 34.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.8 ±10.4

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 117.67Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 126.85Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 123.2Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±9.8

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 91.99Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 118.95Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 112.96Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6377, 2728, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6377, 2728, 9418

Auto

77.3 21%

Teleop

191.2 53%

Endgame

92.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3481, 324, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3481, 324, 5829

Auto

48.8 15%

Teleop

178.9 56%

Endgame

91.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score367.7pts

Blue projected score323.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.8
Score range: 274–418
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 277.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.8Season APEX426.3

77.3Auto48.8

191.2Teleop178.9

92.7Endgame91

95Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	83
teleop	116	160
endgame	123	94
foul	0	0
total	312	337

Result

Final score

312 – 337

Prediction missed · off by 34.4 pts

Match videos

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