FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 90

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.56 – 96.29

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176 ±10.4

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 39.73Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 8.73Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 8.1Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.5 ±10.4

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 4.95Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 55.12Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 36.22Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9492, 11200, 3676

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9492, 11200, 3676

Auto

9.8 19%

Teleop

7.2 14%

Endgame

34.5 67%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2687, 8088, 10032

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2687, 8088, 10032

Auto

37.3 38%

Teleop

17.5 18%

Endgame

42.6 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score56.6pts

Blue projected score96.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.7
Score range: 8–145
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 273.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176Season APEX207.5

9.8Auto37.3

7.2Teleop17.5

34.5Endgame42.6

107Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	26
teleop	37	98
endgame	15	28
foul	0	5
total	74	157

Result

Final score

74 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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