Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
230.28 – 240.85
47%53%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
572 – 55
Prediction missed · off by 263.8 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 686.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 69.14Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 99.71Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 61.43Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.9 ±9.8
Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 72Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 69.14Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 99.71Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10340, 2881, 7506
63
/ 100 compatProjected
230.3 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10340, 2881, 7506
Auto
33.4 15%
Teleop
116.3 52%
Endgame
74.9 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 10032, 9492, 5829
65
/ 100 compatProjected
240.8 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10032, 9492, 5829
Auto
37.7 16%
Teleop
137.4 58%
Endgame
62.9 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.67
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score230.3pts
Blue projected score240.8pts
Red win probability47%
Event bonus sample210alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 47%
Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 12%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -10.6
- Score range
- 183–288
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
686.2Season APEX295.9
33.4Auto37.7
116.3Teleop137.4
74.9Endgame62.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 55 | 17 |
| teleop | 377 | 36 |
| endgame | 140 | 2 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 572 | 55 |
Result
Final score
572 – 55
Prediction missed · off by 263.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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