FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

307.61 – 267.62

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

338 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 525.8 ±9.3

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 159.92Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 127.5Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 20.19Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452 ±9.8

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 54.01Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 48.33Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 165.28Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3847, 1477, 9444

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3847, 1477, 9444

Auto

51.9 17%

Teleop

186.9 62%

Endgame

60.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1255, 10994, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1255, 10994, 2468

Auto

28.6 11%

Teleop

169.0 64%

Endgame

67.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score307.6pts

Blue projected score267.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40
Score range: 219–357
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 592 vs event baseline 273.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

525.8Season APEX452

51.9Auto28.6

186.9Teleop169

60.4Endgame67.9

106Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	45
teleop	219	178
endgame	43	26
foul	0	5
total	338	254

Result

Final score

338 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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