FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 88

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

271.53 – 228.29

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

312 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432.7 ±9.8

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 50.29Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 84.82Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 136.42Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.3 ±10.4

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 67.62Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 25.87Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 134.8Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8507, 3481, 3005

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8507, 3481, 3005

Auto

51.4 19%

Teleop

151.0 57%

Endgame

62.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4734, 8370, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4734, 8370, 9418

Auto

45.2 20%

Teleop

128.2 56%

Endgame

56.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score271.5pts

Blue projected score228.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.2
Score range: 179–321
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 551 vs event baseline 273.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432.7Season APEX251.3

51.4Auto45.2

151Teleop128.2

62.4Endgame56.1

96Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	30
teleop	145	122
endgame	106	87
foul	0	0
total	312	239

Result

Final score

312 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.