FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.4 – 248.38

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385 ±9.8

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 51.36Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 80.75Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 78.29Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.2 ±9.8

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 144.34Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 80.26Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 23.78Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5417, 2587, 11242

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5417, 2587, 11242

Auto

20.5 10%

Teleop

100.2 51%

Endgame

77.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1296, 7506, 9577

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1296, 7506, 9577

Auto

46.9 19%

Teleop

139.4 57%

Endgame

59.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score210.4pts

Blue projected score248.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38
Score range: 161–297
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 505 vs event baseline 273.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385Season APEX468.2

20.5Auto46.9

100.2Teleop139.4

77.6Endgame59.9

91Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	40
teleop	92	192
endgame	77	67
foul	0	0
total	206	299

Result

Final score

206 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.