FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.78 – 423.25

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

176 – 592

Prediction correct · off by 86 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.4 ±10.4

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 60.31Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 55.8Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 56.67Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 658.7 ±9.3

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 105.73Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 219.52Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 98Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5261, 3679, 4295

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5261, 3679, 4295

Auto

43.7 27%

Teleop

66.1 40%

Endgame

54.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 324, 10340, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 324, 10340, 10014

Auto

56.2 13%

Teleop

263.3 63%

Endgame

97.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score172.8pts

Blue projected score423.3pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -250.5
Score range: 124–472
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 768 vs event baseline 272.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.4Season APEX658.7

43.7Auto56.2

66.1Teleop263.3

54.3Endgame97.7

105Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	88
teleop	67	349
endgame	78	155
foul	0	0
total	176	592

Result

Final score

176 – 592

Prediction correct · off by 86 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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