FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.38 – 161.62

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.3 ±10.4

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 53Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 80.2Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 136.18Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313 ±9.8

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 108.65Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 18.4Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 34.57Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6901, 3735, 2728

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6901, 3735, 2728

Auto

44.0 17%

Teleop

138.5 53%

Endgame

76.8 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5829, 11277, 7691

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5829, 11277, 7691

Auto

34.4 21%

Teleop

104.1 64%

Endgame

22.9 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score269.4pts

Blue projected score161.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.8
Score range: 113–318
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 482 vs event baseline 272.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.3Season APEX313

44Auto34.4

138.5Teleop104.1

76.8Endgame22.9

110Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	43
teleop	159	62
endgame	83	75
foul	0	0
total	302	180

Result

Final score

302 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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