FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

438.73 – 503.15

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

481 – 536

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 482 ±9

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 81.98Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 184.4Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 172.35Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 703.7 ±9.3

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 158.55Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 219.65Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 124.95Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7503, 118, 6672

/ 100 compat

Projected

438.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7503, 118, 6672

Auto

73.1 17%

Teleop

259.0 60%

Endgame

101.2 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 2881, 6800, 6377

/ 100 compat

Projected

503.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2881, 6800, 6377

Auto

118.2 24%

Teleop

280.6 56%

Endgame

100.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.52 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score438.7pts

Blue projected score503.2pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.4
Score range: 390–552
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1017 vs event baseline 269.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

482Season APEX703.7

73.1Auto118.2

259Teleop280.6

101.2Endgame100.9

94Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	134
teleop	248	281
endgame	164	121
foul	5	0
total	481	536

Result

Final score

481 – 536

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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