FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

369.15 – 178.19

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

310 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438.4 ±9.8

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 140.07Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 91.63Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 137.45Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.9 ±9.8

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 21.84Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 76Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 80.35Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9418, 3481, 2582

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9418, 3481, 2582

Auto

55.5 16%

Teleop

206.9 58%

Endgame

94.7 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9444, 624, 5892

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9444, 624, 5892

Auto

38.0 21%

Teleop

98.8 56%

Endgame

40.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score369.2pts

Blue projected score178.2pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 191
Score range: 129–418
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 270.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438.4Season APEX362.9

55.5Auto38

206.9Teleop98.8

94.7Endgame40.5

56Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	57
teleop	183	82
endgame	85	24
foul	0	0
total	310	163

Result

Final score

310 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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