FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.89 – 145.91

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 69.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.7 ±10.4

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 42.38Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 15.87Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 18.64Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.1 ±10.4

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 53.61Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 52.54Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 39.76Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5417, 9577, 8370

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5417, 9577, 8370

Auto

13.9 22%

Teleop

28.6 45%

Endgame

20.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8088, 1255, 9492

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8088, 1255, 9492

Auto

36.9 26%

Teleop

66.9 46%

Endgame

40.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score76.9pts

Blue projected score145.9pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69
Score range: 28–195
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 271.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.7Season APEX239.1

13.9Auto36.9

28.6Teleop66.9

20.9Endgame40.2

119Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	31
teleop	80	106
endgame	77	42
foul	0	0
total	183	179

Result

Final score

183 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 69.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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