FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

206.3 – 349.77

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

258 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 72 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.2 ±10.4

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 47.02Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 102.78Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 56.5Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 699.1 ±8.7

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 157.14Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 72.77Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 119.86Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8507, 324, 5261

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8507, 324, 5261

Auto

35.5 17%

Teleop

133.8 64%

Endgame

38.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2468, 11242, 1477

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2468, 11242, 1477

Auto

38.8 11%

Teleop

202.8 58%

Endgame

106.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score206.3pts

Blue projected score349.8pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.5
Score range: 157–399
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 700 vs event baseline 270.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.2Season APEX699.1

35.5Auto38.8

133.8Teleop202.8

38.7Endgame106.9

65Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	72
teleop	153	289
endgame	88	81
foul	0	0
total	258	442

Result

Final score

258 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 72 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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