FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.81 – 129.48

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.2 ±10.4

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 32.31Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 78.93Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 79.57Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.6 ±10.4

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 6.55Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 78.89Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 44.04Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7691, 7506, 3735

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7691, 7506, 3735

Auto

34.8 19%

Teleop

92.8 52%

Endgame

51.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2687, 2587, 10994

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2687, 2587, 10994

Auto

25.3 20%

Teleop

44.7 35%

Endgame

56.5 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score190.8pts

Blue projected score129.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.3
Score range: 80–240
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 271.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.2Season APEX239.6

34.8Auto25.3

92.8Teleop44.7

51.9Endgame56.5

109Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	33
teleop	148	66
endgame	41	73
foul	0	0
total	223	172

Result

Final score

223 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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