FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.66 – 247.83

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 453

Prediction correct · off by 126.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.2 ±10.4

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX -Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 67.14Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 663.1 ±9.3

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 82.86Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 121.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX -Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6901, 7691, 11200

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6901, 7691, 11200

Auto

38.0 25%

Teleop

84.4 55%

Endgame

31.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3481, 2468, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3481, 2468, 3847

Auto

34.4 15%

Teleop

137.9 60%

Endgame

58.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score153.7pts

Blue projected score247.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.2
Score range: 107–295
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 559 vs event baseline 259.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.2Season APEX663.1

12Auto21.4

41.1Teleop116.3

14Endgame49.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	64
teleop	56	296
endgame	24	93
foul	5	0
total	106	453

Result

Final score

106 – 453

Prediction correct · off by 126.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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