FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.33 – 314.4

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.6 ±10.4

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 11.68Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 69.16Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 19.49Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 527.1 ±9.3

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 108.83Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 58.7Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 146.87Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11200, 4734, 11277

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11200, 4734, 11277

Auto

25.5 25%

Teleop

53.3 53%

Endgame

21.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5829, 3679, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5829, 3679, 1296

Auto

61.1 20%

Teleop

179.6 58%

Endgame

68.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score100.3pts

Blue projected score314.4pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -214.1
Score range: 51–363
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 272.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.6Season APEX527.1

25.5Auto61.1

53.3Teleop179.6

21.8Endgame68.7

103Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	45
teleop	50	192
endgame	37	72
foul	0	0
total	110	309

Result

Final score

110 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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