FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

384.74 – 333.4

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 83.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.9 ±9.3

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 149.49Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 64.25Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 171Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 523.9 ±9.8

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 86.95Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 18.91Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 227.54Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3005, 6901, 2881

/ 100 compat

Projected

384.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3005, 6901, 2881

Auto

69.6 18%

Teleop

229.3 59%

Endgame

87.5 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5892, 3676, 6800

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5892, 3676, 6800

Auto

65.6 20%

Teleop

175.5 53%

Endgame

88.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score384.7pts

Blue projected score333.4pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.3
Score range: 284–434
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 552 vs event baseline 272.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

545.9Season APEX523.9

69.6Auto65.6

229.3Teleop175.5

87.5Endgame88.5

81Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	96
teleop	170	88
endgame	44	89
foul	15	0
total	279	273

Result

Final score

279 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 83.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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