FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

423.38 – 361.94

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

476 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.3 ±9.8

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 132.94Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 121.05Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 169.39Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 665.5 ±8.7

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 172.3Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 103.45Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 86.19Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2582, 6377, 6672

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2582, 6377, 6672

Auto

55.5 13%

Teleop

272.4 65%

Endgame

92.9 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3847, 10014, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3847, 10014, 624

Auto

63.0 18%

Teleop

211.1 60%

Endgame

78.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score423.4pts

Blue projected score361.9pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.4
Score range: 313–472
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 755 vs event baseline 270.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.3Season APEX665.5

55.5Auto63

272.4Teleop211.1

92.9Endgame78.5

122Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	80
teleop	262	120
endgame	110	64
foul	5	15
total	476	279

Result

Final score

476 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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