FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

234.94 – 306.91

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 97.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.7 ±10.4

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 23.7Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 101.64Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 109.6Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490 ±9.8

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 88.66Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 130.6Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 87.65Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8370, 3481, 324

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8370, 3481, 324

Auto

50.0 23%

Teleop

128.3 58%

Endgame

42.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2587, 1477, 7506

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2587, 1477, 7506

Auto

34.4 11%

Teleop

161.7 53%

Endgame

109.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score234.9pts

Blue projected score306.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72
Score range: 186–356
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 271.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.7Season APEX490

50Auto34.4

128.3Teleop161.7

42.5Endgame109.6

64Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	50
teleop	96	107
endgame	29	36
foul	0	0
total	154	193

Result

Final score

154 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 97.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree