FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.35 – 138.29

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

267 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 65.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.4 ±10.4

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 135.83Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 22.59Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 37.93Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.8 ±10.4

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 72Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 18.23Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 48.06Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9418, 7691, 8507

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9418, 7691, 8507

Auto

33.9 17%

Teleop

118.7 61%

Endgame

42.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3735, 9444, 8088

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3735, 9444, 8088

Auto

38.5 29%

Teleop

51.9 39%

Endgame

42.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score196.4pts

Blue projected score138.3pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.1
Score range: 89–245
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 465 vs event baseline 271.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.4Season APEX268.8

33.9Auto38.5

118.7Teleop51.9

42.6Endgame42

82Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	32
teleop	136	89
endgame	64	62
foul	0	15
total	267	198

Result

Final score

267 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 65.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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