FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.97 – 452.99

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 82.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.2 ±10.4

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 58.46Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 23.16Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 20.35Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 699 ±9.3

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 162.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 236.72Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 54.13Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5261, 11277, 3676

/ 100 compat

Projected

102 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5261, 11277, 3676

Auto

23.1 22%

Teleop

38.8 37%

Endgame

44.2 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1296, 6800, 5417

/ 100 compat

Projected

453 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1296, 6800, 5417

Auto

70.2 16%

Teleop

233.4 53%

Endgame

137.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score102pts

Blue projected score453pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -351
Score range: 53–502
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 272.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.2Season APEX699

23.1Auto70.2

38.8Teleop233.4

44.2Endgame137.4

99Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	107
teleop	37	173
endgame	17	22
foul	15	5
total	83	307

Result

Final score

83 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 82.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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