FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.27 – 265.42

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 563.9 ±9.3

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 42.16Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 144.08Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 95.03Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.2 ±9.8

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 122.51Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 66.82Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 76.09Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1255, 3005, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1255, 3005, 10014

Auto

52.4 19%

Teleop

164.7 59%

Endgame

63.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6377, 6901, 11242

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6377, 6901, 11242

Auto

46.3 18%

Teleop

145.2 55%

Endgame

71.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score281.3pts

Blue projected score265.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.8
Score range: 216–330
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 539 vs event baseline 272.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

563.9Season APEX361.2

52.4Auto46.3

164.7Teleop145.2

63.2Endgame71.5

101Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	45
teleop	168	113
endgame	87	63
foul	10	5
total	313	226

Result

Final score

313 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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