FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

195.36 – 376.23

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

219 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.9 ±9.8

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 127.5Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 7.45Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 60.41Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.7 ±9.8

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 127.71Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 163.41Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 85.11Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2582, 2687, 3679

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2582, 2687, 3679

Auto

36.6 20%

Teleop

86.3 47%

Endgame

59.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2728, 2881, 7503

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2728, 2881, 7503

Auto

80.4 21%

Teleop

222.1 58%

Endgame

79.5 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score195.4pts

Blue projected score376.2pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -180.9
Score range: 146–425
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 628 vs event baseline 270.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.9Season APEX497.7

36.6Auto80.4

86.3Teleop222.1

59.5Endgame79.5

132Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	86
teleop	126	245
endgame	62	73
foul	0	5
total	219	409

Result

Final score

219 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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