FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.08 – 136.08

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.6 ±9.8

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX -Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX -Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX -Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.9 ±10.4

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX -Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX -Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX -Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4295, 3676, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4295, 3676, 624

Auto

40.8 30%

Teleop

68.0 50%

Endgame

27.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8370, 8507, 7503

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8370, 8507, 7503

Auto

40.8 30%

Teleop

68.0 50%

Endgame

27.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score136.1pts

Blue projected score136.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 87–185
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 272.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.6Season APEX249.9

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	39
teleop	87	93
endgame	66	33
foul	0	0
total	203	165

Result

Final score

203 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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