FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153 – 264.68

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.5 ±9.8

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 88Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 42.61Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 22.39Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.4 ±9.8

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 38.45Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 8.05Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 218.18Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 624, 10032, 9577

/ 100 compat

Projected

153 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 624, 10032, 9577

Auto

32.4 22%

Teleop

84.8 57%

Endgame

30.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10994, 11200, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10994, 11200, 10340

Auto

33.2 13%

Teleop

146.4 55%

Endgame

86.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score153pts

Blue projected score264.7pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.7
Score range: 104–314
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 271.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.5Season APEX402.4

32.4Auto33.2

84.8Teleop146.4

30.6Endgame86

111Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	51
teleop	37	189
endgame	19	52
foul	0	15
total	97	307

Result

Final score

97 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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