FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.75 – 225.86

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

271 – 167

Prediction missed · off by 90.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.6 ±9.8

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 139.67Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 9.82Rank 40Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 0.26Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.9 ±10.4

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 78.78Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 66.69Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 80.39Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2468, 3676, 9444

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2468, 3676, 9444

Auto

15.2 10%

Teleop

100.2 66%

Endgame

35.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3735, 4295, 4734

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3735, 4295, 4734

Auto

52.0 25%

Teleop

90.7 43%

Endgame

67.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score149.7pts

Blue projected score225.9pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76.1
Score range: 101–275
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 271.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.6Season APEX287.9

15.2Auto52

100.2Teleop90.7

35.9Endgame67.9

113Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	47
teleop	138	77
endgame	115	43
foul	0	0
total	271	167

Result

Final score

271 – 167

Prediction missed · off by 90.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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