FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

292.5 – 473.33

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

439 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 75.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 668.4 ±8.7

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 58.96Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 80.14Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 153.4Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 683.4 ±9.3

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 126.02Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 106.22Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 241.09Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11242, 10014, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11242, 10014, 1296

Auto

52.9 19%

Teleop

143.1 50%

Endgame

88.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1477, 3481, 6800

/ 100 compat

Projected

473.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1477, 3481, 6800

Auto

78.6 17%

Teleop

252.4 55%

Endgame

125.2 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score292.5pts

Blue projected score473.3pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -180.8
Score range: 245–521
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 908 vs event baseline 269.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

668.4Season APEX683.4

52.9Auto78.6

143.1Teleop252.4

88.5Endgame125.2

38Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	110
teleop	232	248
endgame	135	111
foul	0	0
total	439	469

Result

Final score

439 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 75.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.