FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.84 – 177.73

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

381 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 66.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.4 ±9

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 163.63Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 34.61Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 74.6Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.3 ±10.4

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 61.1Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 71.77Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 44.86Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 118, 8088, 2587

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 118, 8088, 2587

Auto

60.7 22%

Teleop

124.6 45%

Endgame

90.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 5261, 6901, 1255

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5261, 6901, 1255

Auto

26.8 15%

Teleop

106.7 60%

Endgame

44.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score272.8pts

Blue projected score177.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.1
Score range: 130–321
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 269.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.4Season APEX247.3

60.7Auto26.8

124.6Teleop106.7

90.3Endgame44.4

127Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	36
teleop	233	80
endgame	89	36
foul	0	0
total	381	152

Result

Final score

381 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 66.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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