FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

232.55 – 281.01

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

153 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 88.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.6 ±9.8

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 40.08Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 19.46Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 173.01Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.2 ±9.8

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 21.49Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 148.12Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 111.4Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8370, 2687, 2881

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8370, 2687, 2881

Auto

55.5 25%

Teleop

116.3 52%

Endgame

52.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 11277, 3847, 6377

/ 100 compat

Projected

281 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11277, 3847, 6377

Auto

52.6 19%

Teleop

169.7 60%

Endgame

59.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score232.6pts

Blue projected score281pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.5
Score range: 185–329
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 532 vs event baseline 269.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.6Season APEX421.2

55.5Auto52.6

116.3Teleop169.7

52.8Endgame59.2

87Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	86
teleop	46	230
endgame	36	63
foul	0	0
total	153	379

Result

Final score

153 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 88.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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