FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.44 – 232.65

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.6 ±9.8

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 221.43Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 30.67Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 41.34Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.6 ±10.4

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 108.88Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 30.2Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 93.57Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10340, 9577, 8507

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10340, 9577, 8507

Auto

46.0 16%

Teleop

165.4 57%

Endgame

77.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 324, 7691, 5892

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 324, 7691, 5892

Auto

41.7 18%

Teleop

144.0 64%

Endgame

40.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score293.4pts

Blue projected score232.7pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.8
Score range: 184–342
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 269.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.6Season APEX304.6

46Auto41.7

165.4Teleop144

77.5Endgame40.9

54Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	26
teleop	203	189
endgame	22	29
foul	0	0
total	252	244

Result

Final score

252 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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