FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

359.66 – 229.12

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

318 – 366

Prediction missed · off by 89.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438.2 ±9.8

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 86.74Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 137.76Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 135.16Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324 ±10.4

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -10.43Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 153.05Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 86.5Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4734, 2582, 2728

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4734, 2582, 2728

Auto

45.0 13%

Teleop

224.4 63%

Endgame

84.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 11200, 6672, 7506

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11200, 6672, 7506

Auto

43.0 19%

Teleop

122.3 55%

Endgame

59.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score359.7pts

Blue projected score229.1pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130.5
Score range: 181–408
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 684 vs event baseline 268.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438.2Season APEX324

45Auto43

224.4Teleop122.3

84.6Endgame59.1

111Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	28
teleop	166	223
endgame	87	110
foul	0	5
total	318	366

Result

Final score

318 – 366

Prediction missed · off by 89.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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