FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.06 – 236.29

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 62.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.3 ±9.3

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 45.26Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 119.67Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 98.13Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.2 ±9.8

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 68.26Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 22.39Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 145.64Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10994, 5829, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10994, 5829, 624

Auto

39.9 16%

Teleop

144.8 57%

Endgame

71.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4295, 9492, 3005

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4295, 9492, 3005

Auto

63.3 26%

Teleop

126.8 51%

Endgame

56.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score263.1pts

Blue projected score236.3pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.8
Score range: 187–312
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 270.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.3Season APEX380.2

39.9Auto63.3

144.8Teleop126.8

71.5Endgame56.5

62Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	59
teleop	104	48
endgame	30	73
foul	0	5
total	189	185

Result

Final score

189 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 62.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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